The Century Foundation
Non-Military Terrorism Prevention: Another Wise But Improbable Idea
Jeremy Barnicle, The Century Foundation, 7/27/2004

Under the broad imperative to "prevent the continued growth of Islamist terrorism," the 9/11 Commission's report outlines several specific recommendations for limiting the probability of future attacks. Unfortunately, the Bush Administration's record suggests that some of these good ideas will get filed away somewhere with the Mars exploration plan. Two examples stand out in particular:

9/11 Commission Recommendation:

"Just as we did in the Cold War, we need to defend our ideals abroad vigorously. If the United States does not act aggressively to define itself in the Islamic world, the extremists will gladly do the job for us." (Page 377)

Specifically, the commission requests increased funding for the Broadcasting Board of Governors (the folks who bring the world Voice of America and other U.S. government-sponsored broadcasting) and a renewed investment in scholarship and exchange programs. These are both modest, reasonable requests and it will be easy for the next administration to meet them.

More broadly though, the Commission's point is that the U.S. needs to make a greater effort at public diplomacy, defined by the State Department as "activities intended to understand, inform, and influence foreign publics."

The Commission's report cites as evidence a Pew Global Attitudes Project poll showing "the bottom has fallen out of support for America in the Muslim world. Negative views of the U.S. among Muslims, which had largely been limited to the countries of the Middle East, have spread. Since last summer, favorable ratings for the U.S. have fallen from 61 percent to 15 percent in Indonesia and from 71 percent to 38 percent in Nigeria." Other polls of the Muslim world-not to mention Europe-echo these findings.

Conservatives will respond that leadership isn't a popularity contest. Fine, but the reflexive tendency of most foreign publics to oppose any initiative of the Bush Administration undermines our national security. We shouldn't let the rest of the world define our foreign policy, but we should make our best effort to make our case.

The Bush Administration has failed completely on this front. Two high profile assistant secretaries of State for public diplomacy have quit, frustrated, in less than three years. A catalogue of credible, non-partisan reports making solid recommendations on improving the U.S. image in the Arab and Muslim world have been ignored by the White House. Programs in public diplomacy, decried as "absurdly and dangerously underfunded" by one group of experts, grew only slightly in President Bush's budget request this year. In short, the Bush Administration has shown an inadequate commitment to advancing U.S. national interests through public diplomacy. There is nothing in the Administration's words or deeds to suggest that weak commitment will change.

9/11 Commission Recommendation:

"A comprehensive U.S strategy to counter terrorism should include economic policies that encourage development, more open societies, and opportunities for people to improve the lives and to enhance prospects for their children's future." (Page 379)

The commission doesn't offer specific policy changes with this recommendation, but again the prospects aren't good for the Bush Administration's adoption of this idea.

In May, the president announced the first round of poor countries eligible for major funding through the Millennium Challenge Account (MCA), his flagship program for international development. The eligible countries are: Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Cape Verde, Georgia, Ghana, Honduras, Lesotho, Madagascar, Mali, Mongolia, Mozambique, Nicaragua, Senegal, Sri Lanka, and Vanuatu.

What do these 16 countries have in common?

1. They are not Muslim, with the exception of Mali and Senegal.
2. They are not located in the Middle East.
3. They are about to become primary recipients of U.S. development assistance.

MCA is a great investment in the developing world--its annual disbursements are planned to reach $5 billion within a few years-and should be applauded. By contrast, the Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI), the president's program for development in the Middle East, was given $129 million in 2002 and 2003. So unfortunately, the White House's policy toward the developing world does little to combat the conditions leading to Islamist terrorism. Again, there is little to suggest this policy would change under a new Bush Administration.

In this report, the 9/11 Commission has issued a challenge to the Bush Administration, Congress, and future presidents. On these recommendations, unfortunately, we are unlikely to see progress unless we see a change in leadership.