In a pair of new papers, The Century Foundation’s Prospects for Peace Initiative offers a fresh look at Syria’s role in the region and its relationships with the United States and Israel. In their papers, preeminent Middle East experts David W. Lesch and Moshe Ma’oz examine the past and present conditions and issues that shape Syria’s relationships with its neighbors, Israel, and the United States and they consider the wide-ranging outcomes and consequences of future political and strategic choices that those countries’ political leaders might make. View David Lesch's “Missed Opportunities: Cooperation Confrontation in the U.S. – Syrian Relationship” (PDF) and Moshe Ma'oz's “Syria’s Role in the Region: Media, Peace Maker or Aggressor"(PDF.)

In “Missed Opportunities: Cooperation Confrontation in the U.S. – Syrian Relationship,” David Lesch reviews the relationship between the United States and Syria, particularly since 1990, and concludes that there have been a number of missed opportunities—spurned opportunities, in the case of the Bush administration—for dialogue and cooperation with Syria on suppressing Islamic terrorism, making peace with Israel, and creating political space in Lebanon. He blames neoconservative ideological hardliners in the administration and their allies in Congress for the sharp turn from constructive engagement to a complete disengagement. He says that while there have been hints of a possible softening of this policy in recent months, there is little evidence for thinking that there will be dramatic change in policy under the current administration.

In “Syria’s Role in the Region: Media, Peace Maker or Aggressor,” Moshe Ma’oz writes that the back-to-back elections of George W. Bush as U.S. president in 2000 and of Ariel Sharon as Israel’s prime minister in 2001 marked a crucial change in the U.S.-Syria-Israel triangular relation. The American occupation of Iraq in 2003 further aggravated these relations and contributed to a tightening of Syria’s ties with Iran and Hezbollah. He warns that if the United States and Israel continue their refusal to engage Syrian President Bashar, he is likely to strengthen those ties and, in a worst-case scenario, may be dragged into war with Israel. Ma’oz concludes that if Bashar believes he can achieve Syria’s strategic goals of regaining the Golan Heights, accruing American and Arab financial support, and influencing Lebanon, he would be prepared to contain Hezbollah’s military power and relax relations with Iran.