"Remembering Afghanistan" appears in the Spring 2006 issue of the World Policy Journal, a publication of the World Policy Institute at The New School.

Since the Taliban were ousted in 2001, Afghanistan has made substantial progress in refugee repatriation and education, women’s rights, and democratic governance. Yet this progress has been wholly contingent upon international aid and security forces—neither of which will persist indefinitely. The nation now has but a brief window of opportunity to achieve self-sufficiency and escape the cycle of poverty and violence that has enveloped it for more than a generation. As Larry Sampler, former chief of staff for the United Nations in Afghanistan put it, “Considering the prospects for the future of Afghanistan, using the ‘glass half full’ analogy misses the point. The glass—whether half-full or half empty—is perched on a buffet table on the Titanic.”

Any failed state may present a threat to international security, but Afghanistan’s collapse would be particularly destabilizing. At the fault line of the Persian, Pakistani, and Russian plates, the country is in a precarious position and its collapse would send shock waves from Kashmir to Chechnya, from Tehran to Islamabad, and would provide jihadists with a highly symbolic second victory over a superpower. The story need not have unfolded this way.

Carl Robichaud is a program officer at The Century Foundation. He prepares the weekly feature Afghanistan Watch, providing news, research, and analysis on current developments in Afghanistan.