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Making the Iraqi elections resemble any kind of democratic process has been fraught
with all kinds of enormous difficulties, foremost among them the
real threat that voters will be killed, possibly in significant numbers.
Many Iraqis will also not go to the polls because of a very valid fear of being
killed in the process. In addition, many international and American observers
question whether the election will be considered legitimate by the Iraqi people
if a majority of Sunnis ban the election, making it predominantly a vote of the
Shiite majority.
Of secondary concern, but largely overlooked in the media coverage, are procedural
and administrative challenges we know from our own experiences here and around
the world can call the legitimacy of an election into serious question.
Undoubtedly, these sorts of issues are far more difficult to address in Iraq
than virtually any other place in the world. At the same time, most of the Iraqi
people want democratic self-governance through free and fair elections. The
question is whether holding the election on this particular Sunday, when the
situation is so dangerous and uncertain, is actually going to bring the Iraqis
what they want and deserve.
One major administrative problem is the confusing nature of the ballot, a serious
matter where there is a population unfamiliar with voting. There are a total
of 19,000 national and regional candidates on the ballot, but
voters are voting for a party not candidates. According to USA
Today, since each of the 111 slates for National Assembly has at
least 12 members, and there will also be regional governing board elections,
there are at least 250 parties or coalitions on the ballot. Moreover, many of
the slates have similar names or symbols, making it hard to tell them apart.
Voters will receive two or three ballots (depending on their area); the
ballot sheets are huge3 feet long by 2 feet wide. The voter will
mark at most one box on each sheet.
As a result of the violence surrounding the elections, many Iraqis have no
idea where they are to vote, how to vote, or who or what they are voting for
anyway. Due to the dangerous conditions, the location of some polling sites
will be kept secret until the last minute. Moreover, according to USA Today,
"In a poll conducted in late November and early December, only 29 percent
of Iraqis answered correctly that on Jan. 30 they would choose a 275-seat National
Assembly that will draft a constitution and appoint an interim government. A
plurality of 41.5 percent said they were voting for president...Most names of
the 7,000 candidates on the national election slates are secret. Because of
the insurgency, the election commission has let the slates keep their members'
identities veiled so they won't be targeted."
Meanwhile, the valiant poll workers administering and overseeing all of this
are likely to be understaffed and insufficiently trainedas
of last week, an estimated 150,000 poll workers were needed to run the
election, but only 6,000 had been trained. And in addition to helping voters,
poll workers will also be busy trying to stay alive. Several Iraqi election
workers have
already been killed simply for being involved in the effort. And although
identification requirements exist in elections in many countries around the
world, those in effect in the Iraqi election may
prove onerous. Iraqis must have 2 original copies of official ID to
vote and one of them must be a picture ID.
There is also the matter of the basis for the voter rolls, the list of Iraqis
receiving food rations. This was never a full list of all potentially eligible
voters and, according
to the New York Times, the voter list is still not finalized. "Citizens
may challenge particular entries and ask that others be added. The final changes
will be made by hand after district officials rule on each dispute." How
accurate will these lists be? And what will happen if an Iraqi shows up to vote
on election day and finds his or her name not on the list?
Finally, unlike any other election in an emerging democracy in the last two
decades, there will be no international monitors of the election. The entities
that usually undertake such missionsthe European Union, the National Democratic
Institute, the Carter Centerwill not be sending monitors into Iraq, and
other countries say it is too dangerous to do so. This not only allows for the
real potential for actual fraud and voter intimidation; it almost guarantees
that the outcome will be questioned by some, and there will be no independent
authority to reconcile the conflict. There will be domestic monitors, but if
there are serious questions raised, it is uncertain that such Iraqi monitors
will be perceived as neutral arbiters.
Foreign observers have become a stalwart of any controversial electioneven
including the 2004 American election. As
the Washington Post points out, "When 1 million Palestinians voted
for a successor to Yasser Arafat, 800 international observers poured into the
West Bank and the Gaza Strip to monitor the polling...When 8 million Afghans
voted in October, at least 122 international observers from across Europe and
Asia monitored the presidential election... But in Iraq, where 14 million people
are eligible to vote, the elections next week may have only one outsider from
the hastily organized International Mission for Iraqi Elections to evaluate
the balloting."
Ironically, in a few select ways the U.S. is doing more to make this election
effective than it does American elections. In addition to spending a great deal
of money on the Iraqi elections, the United States is sponsoring a huge get-out-the-vote
advertising campaign, on television, in
newspapers and on billboards. Moreover, while election reformers have
called for U.S. elections to be held on the weekends or a holiday, the election
in Iraq will in fact be held on a Sunday. In addition, Iraqis in two of the
country's most troubled provinces will be permitted to register and vote on
the day of elections, in the hope that it will increase voter turnoutsomething
it has proven to do in the
six American states that allow this same procedure. Finally, Iraqis
are getting something American campaign reformers have been advocating for yearsfree
air time. The U.S.-backed channel Al-Iraqiya is obliged by Iraqi Election Commission
rules to provide
all parties two to three minutes of free and equal airtime.
The democratic process, especially in the beginning, is often a highly flawed
experiment. The conditions in Iraq are unlikely to dramatically improve anytime
soon. Nonetheless, as we assess whether the U.S. is truly fulfilling its stated
mission of bringing Iraq and the rest of the world democracy, we must wonder
if this first foray will set the best example.
Tova Andrea Wang is a senior program officer and Democracy Fellow at The
Century Foundation.
For a comparison of the elections in Iraq with the recent election in Afghanistan, see Iraqi Elections: Does the Afghan Example Give Reason for Optimism? in this week's Afghanistan Watch.
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