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NATO agrees to a larger role: NATO finally agreed to take a more assertive role in Afghanistan, expanding its operations next year to the southern provinces and adding an extra 6,000 soldiers. NATO currently deploys 9,000 troops in Afghanistan, the vast majority of them in low-conflict regions. While the exact mandate of the new forces remains unclear—these will be peacekeepers operating in areas where peace is not established—it’s an encouraging sign of burden-sharing and should provide much-needed security to Afghan civilians.

Suicide bombing in Kandahar: A June 1 bomb in a Kandahar mosque that killed 19 and injured 52, mostly civilians, was the most lethal in a wave of almost twenty suicide attacks this year. There is evidence, direct and anecdotal, that indigenous Taliban and foreign insurgents have imported the tactics of Iraq into Afghanistan , a country where suicide attacks were once rare.

Afghan security : Because the U.S. military remains focused on counterterrorism, security has not dramatically improved for Afghan civilians, who continue to face coercion from militia leaders, strongmen, and drug lords.

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Parliamentary Elections: The Afghan people made their voices heard at the polls, with 6.8 of 12 million registered voters showing up to vote for the national assembly and provincial councils. The electoral process was flawed and there were indications that voters felt disempowered: almost half (46 percent) of Afghans believed there was voter fraud and participation was down by 30 percent in Kabul compared to last year’s presidential polls. Nevertheless, vote buying and intimidation were insufficient to deter optimism: three-quarters of Afghans report having faith in the new parliament.

Human rights abusers elected: The elections signaled the entry into official power of some of the country’s worst war criminals. A prime example is Abdul Rabb Rasoul Sayyaf, an eloquent former jihadi, who came just five votes short of becoming Chairman of the Wolesi Jirga. Sayyaf’s abuses have been extensively documented by Human Rights Watch. He is not alone, either: HRW estimates that 60 percent of the new representatives are linked to militias and many stand accused of abuses.

Will elected office transform these leaders and make them more accountable? It’s possible. But the first session of the assembly does not bode well: Malalai Joya, a female minister, was shouted down when she criticized human rights abusers in the parliament.

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IMF reports “strong” performance: A May IMF review described Afghanistan ’s progress: “Output continued to grow steadily. Core inflation remained limited. Money growth and fiscal revenue were in line with program projections. All structural benchmarks but one were met. This performance bodes well for the long-term course of the economy.” The IMF expects GDP to rise to 13 percent next year.

Inaugural Development Data Released: For the first time, the UNDP released an Afghan Human Development Report. This data is indispensable: in its absence, it is virtually impossible to plan effective interventions and measure progress.

Inefficiency of assistance: Afghanistan remains on life-support, and the model by which international aid is distributed remains fundamentally flawed. The result? A parallel public sector has emerged which causes inefficiencies and slows the development of the Afghan state. Currently, only 18 percent of foreign aid is channeled through the Government of Afghanistan, and high-profile contractor fiascos have shaken the faith of Afghans in the development process.

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Successful eradication in Nangahar: When the powerful Arsala clan decided to cooperate with the Afghan government in return for foreign aid, poppy production plummeted by 96% in Nangahar, the province which contains Jalalabad. This change almost singlehandedly cut Afghanistan’s poppy cultivation by 20 percent this year, and showed that with the right incentives, farmers will give up their illicit crops.

U.S. drops opium spraying plan: In January, after opposition from President Karzai, the United States gave up its ill-conceived plans to aerially spray Afghanistan’s poppy crop. Opium represents the half the Afghan economy and there is no feasible plan to replace it. In the current climate, eradication would be highly destabilizing and counterproductive. Unfortunately, the issue is not fully settled and could reemerge in 2006.

Failure to provide alternative livelihoods: In Nangahar, as in other regions, the international community failed to provide meaningful aid to farmers who gave up their only cash crop. As Barnett Rubin describes it, Afghans were enticed by roads, dams, electric power, and fertilizers; instead “USAID allocated $71 million to alternative livelihoods in Nangahar which means they gave $71 million dollars to two Washington-based consulting firms . . . they paid people to dig ditches they didn’t need and paid them $3 a day to do it. I have photographs of these activities, actually. This was not what people thought was coming.”

The U.N. narcotics office has already stated that it expects poppy cultivation to increase next year. It’s no surprise, given the broken promises to last year’s growers.

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Killing of Hamza Rabia: In December, an unmanned predator drone launched a missile which killed Hamza Rabia, a key Al Qaeda operative who may have ranked as high as number three in the global network.

Military success against the Taliban: The U.S.-led Coalition continues to defeat the Taliban in every engagement it fights. Yet long-term success or failure will hinge not on military success but on efforts to isolate insurgents, especially by cutting off support from Pakistan . The scope of recent fighting suggests that the Taliban and their allies have been able to replace their ranks and operate effectively even with the loss of over 200 fighters this year. So far, amnesty programs have had limited success.

Escape of four high-level al Qaeda operatives: In an embarrassing setback, four top terrorist suspects escaped from a U.S. detention facility in Bagram in July. The group included O mar al-Faruq, a Kuwaiti who headed operations in Southeast Asia and had been considered “one of the most important Qaeda figures ever captured by the United States.”

Increase in foreign jihadists in Afghanistan: More and more foreign fighters are appearing among the ranks of the insurgency, suggesting a failure to prevent the flow of arms, funds and militants across borders. The U.S. has not gained Pakistan ’s full cooperation in addressing the threat.