A central contention of conservatives who cut taxes of those
with high incomes while simultaneously reducing social insurance programs
is that these measures are not undertaken to help the rich, but to help everyone
by putting in place incentives that will accelerate economic growth. For example,
Greg Mankiw, former head of President Bush's Council of Economic Advisors,
wrote to the New York Times on June 5 that "the data show that
the rich take a rising share of income when economic growth is booming
.
Their share declines when the economy hits hard times
."
Do the data support the idea that a bigger share of income for
the rich results in more rapid economic growth? For the United States since
1959, the answer is unambiguously "no!" (Brad DeLong looks at data
from 1913 and comes to the same conclusion here)
Since the early 1980's more and more income has been concentrated
at the top of the income distribution, but there has been no significant change
in the rate of economic growth.
Conservatives like Mankiw propose that the relationship between
income concentration and economic growth is positive, as illustrated by the
upward sloping line in the figure below. But the actual data points for the
US from 1959 to 2002 lie nowhere near Mankiw's line. In fact, they exhibit
no significant relationship at all.
If we smooth the data a bit by taking five year moving averages
we can see the evolution of income concentration and economic growth more
clearly. (A moving average calculates the share of income of the top 1 percent
and the growth of real GDP for 1961 as the averages of these numbers for 1959-1963;
for 1962, the averages are for 1960-1964, and so on). As we see below, the
share of income of the top 1 percent remained in a narrow range from 1959
through the early 1980s. During that time, the rate of economic growth rose
and fell without any connection to income concentration. Since the early 1980s
income has become more and more concentrated at the top. Income growth has
not responded at all to this growing concentration of income. There is no
evidence at all for an upward slope to the data points in the figure below.
Like so much else in conservative ideological rhetoric, the
claim that there is a trade-off between fairness and growth is uncorroborated
by the facts. Of course we must take care that policy does not distort incentives
to hurt the economy. But there is no evidence that the tax cuts for the rich
undertaken in the Reagan and Bush administrations have done anything at all
to accelerate growth, nor that the Clinton tax increases came at the expense
of economic growth. It's a smoke screen, folks. The real agenda is for the
rich to pig-out.
Bernard Wasow is a senior fellow at The Century Foundation.