|
The current Social Security debate is filled with ideologically derived premises
that seem to make little economic or factual sense but are great political slogans.
One of my favorites is that, with the retirement of the huge baby boomer generation,
we just "won't be able to afford the program any more."
A quick check of the history of the program, however, reminds us that we used
to have quite different ideas about what was possible in America. When Franklin
Roosevelt launched Social Security the nation was deep in the Great Depression,
our worst economic crisis ever. Roosevelt didn't look at the sorry state of
the economy, at an unemployment rate of 25 percent, and say we cannot afford
to create a program to provide security for the elderly. He didn't promise that
we would take action some day in the future, after workers had all accumulated
large returns in on private accounts invested in the stock market (which might
have sounded a bit silly, anyway, in the 1930s). He just did it. Indeed it was
the market collapse and the subsequent drop in employment and national income
that taught him and people in general that some sort of social insurance program
was a necessary safety net for most workers.
The effects of the Depression lingered when, in 1941, the United States became
involved in the greatest war in history. But Social Security's promises were
not abandoned because of the overwhelming demands of World War II, financial
and otherwise. In fact, the program was expanded.
And through all the following decades, Democratic and Republican presidents
supported Social Security through other wars and frequent recessions. Payroll
contributions were increased twelve times; coverage was expanded even more often.
And indeed, after the worst recession since the Great Depression, which occurred
during Ronald Reagan's first term, Reagan instituted an effort to make Social
Security even more secure.
While all this was happening the percentage of Americans over 65 was more than
doubling, a bigger increase than that anticipated for the next 50 years.
Why is it then that for many the aging of the boomers is a nearly insurmountable
problem clouding America's future? The boomers, after all, probably had a bigger
impact on the nation when they were kids. The sheer size of the generation once
overloaded local schools systems and spurred tremendous costs in building schools,
training teachers, and, later, providing college loans and grants. Between 1952
and 1970, elementary-secondary schools expenditures increased more than 275
percent in inflation-adjusted dollars. In fact, the shift in GDP that paid for
school costs and expansion for boomer kidsfrom 1.4 percent to 4.1 percentis
larger than that required to keep Social Security at current levels for the
next century.
As children, boomers comprised over 40 percent of the population; in 2000,
they were less than 28 percent; in retirement they'll drop below 25 percent.
And, by the 2040s, when the projected shortfalls will occur in Social Security,
most of the boomers will benot to put too fine a point on itdead.
So what has happened to make Social Security unaffordable? The problem can't
be the simple ratio of workers to non-workers. When one calculates the total
number of people per workerincluding children and the elderlyit
turns out the ratio was greater in the 1960s than it is today. Yet I don't think
the sixties are generally thought of as a time of economic deprivation. Looking
into the future, the ratio of workers to non-workers hardly changes: from a
total of 170 people who today depend on the output of every 100 workers, the
number is projected to rise no higher than 178 at the peak of baby boomer retirement.
Is this what we cannot afford? Furthermore, average incomes which have more
than doubled in inflation adjusted dollars since 1960 are expected to grow by
another 50 percent by mid-century.
Finally, consider the fact that while the boomers came into the world with
nothing, they will leave a great deal behind. Besides the obvious trillions
in inheritances, they have built, invented, and contributed vast amounts to
the national economy. We are a richer people than we were in Franklin Roosevelt's
time, and richer, too, than we were during the childhood of the boomers.
The question then is not whether we can afford to keep Social Security in
the future; it is whether we still believe in the idea that Americans, boomers
included, have the right to a dignified old age.
Richard C. Leone is president of The Century Foundation.
|