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Afghan President Hamid Karzai's request to President Bush this week for greater
control over American troops in his country cuts to several central questions:
what foreign presence is appropriate in Afghanistan? Who should run these foreign
troops, and to whom should they remain accountable? Are they there to preserve
Afghan security and fight terrorism, or for other purposes as well?
Karzai is not the first to voice skepticism about the U.S. military's long-term
role in the region. To many allies and competitors, the U.S. force posture seems
incongruent with the threat. In Afghanistan alone, the Pentagon leads a coalition
of 18,000 troops (16,700 of them American), ostensibly to combat a dwindling
Taliban insurgency of perhaps a thousand militants. The mandate of these troops
is to combat al Qaeda and the Taliban; they do not play a role in counternarcotics
operations, and are only peripherally involved in providing security for Afghan
citizens. Rather than decreasing in size in the four years since the defeat
of the Taliban, coalition forces almost doubled in the past year from a low
of 10,000.
So far, U.S. troops have played a constructive role for Afghanistan. They deposed
the Taliban's harsh rule and restored stability to a country that had seen a
generation of war. Alongside NATO forces and NGO partners, they helped to preserve
and extend governmental authority, and paved the way for elections. October's
election was essentially a referendum on Karzai's rule, and voters felt that
he provided stability and opportunity, in large part because of his relationship
with Washington.
A little over a year ago, attitudes towards American and the U.S. military
were generally favorable. The
most comprehensive survey, conducted by the Asia Foundation from February to
March 2004, found that roughly two-thirds of Afghans were positive toward
both the U.S. and U.S. military forces operating in Afghanistan. However, the
survey gave rise to concerns: a plurality of Afghans were unfavorable to the
U.S. in both the Northwest (58 percent unfavorable vs. 30 percent favorable)
and the South (46 percent unfavorable vs. 37 percent favorable). Attitudes toward
the U.S. military were similar (59 percent unfavorable vs. 26 percent favorable
in the Northwest, 42 percent unfavorable vs 39 percent favorable in the South.)
(see pp. 9-10)
Moreover, there is evidence that Afghans are chafing at the thought of a long-term
American 'occupation.' As General Richard Meyers and President Karzai both argued
last week, the violent protests on May 11 were less the result of a single incident
(the Koran desecration) than of broader frustrations about America's role. Numerous
complaints broadcast in the Afghan mediaranging from imperious behavior
by U.S. security contractors, to abuses during raids, to claims that former
U.S Ambassador to Afghanistan Khalilzad was the real head of statesuggest
that the Afghan public is growing weary of Washington's hand. The presence of
American troops, which were ramped up to ensure the success of the coming parliamentary
elections, could have the opposite effect, spurring a political backlash that
strengthens the position of unsavory factions.
In addition, this troop presence may be fueling anti-Americanism in the region.
Operation Enduring Freedom, originally viewed positively by much of the world,
has been re-cast in the wake of America's invasion and occupation of Iraq, and
is seen by much of the world as part of a U.S. grand strategy of hegemony. A
March 2004 Pew poll found that by a wide margin people in the Muslim countries
surveyed (Turkey, Jordan, Pakistan, and Morocco) oppose America's war on terrorism.
The 2005 Pew polling
data indicate that respondents question the sincerity of America's motives
in the war on terrorespecially in Pakistan where only 6 percent felt U.S.
efforts were sincere (vs. 58 percent insincere.) A majority of respondents in
many nations worried that the U.S. military posed a threat to their country.
The net result is suspicion of U.S. intentions and an erosion of America's position
in the region.
The U.S. can assuage some of these fears by working to internationalize the
security presence in Afghanistan. The Pentagon long opposed the expansion of
U.N.-authorized International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) forces, resulting
in a small force of 5,000 limited to Kabul. The mandate of this force, which
consists of NATO troops, was recently expanded to the provinces, and has played
a role in securing elections and reconstruction. These international forces
should be bolstered to guarantee stability until the Afghan army reaches sufficiency
(and until its loyalty to the state, rather than to individual factions, is
confirmed.) The international force should be increasingly constituted by Muslims,
such as the Turkish troops that serve there with distinction today (to bring
in more troops from mostly-Muslim states, ISAF will eventually need to involve
non-NATO partners.) An expanded ISAF, authorized by the U.N., could eventually
supplant the American forces. This force would have the benefit of being multi-national,
multi-religious, and internationally accountable.
It will be interesting to see how such a proposal is greeted by Washington,
which has not pressed for increases in international troops in Afghanistan as
energetically as it has in Iraq. A sizeable and indefinite base presence in
Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan allows the U.S. to project power toward
China and Russia. Moreover, in the President's transformative vision for the
greater Middle East, American troops help ensure a loyal, democratic, and thriving
Afghanistan that can induce reform within Iran and Pakistan. Of course the question
remains: does this presence serve as a stimulant for democratic and societal
reform or as an irritant that can incite hostility and help recruit radicals?
Another troubling implication of the over-militarized approach to America's
regional goals is that military expenses have crowded out critical state-building
investments. America efforts in Afghanistan follow the meringue model of nation-building,
with a substantial military crust concealing a broad but airy layer of societal
engagement. America sponsors numerous reconstruction initiatives, but many of
them lack substance and funding. If budgets reveal priorities, the
administration's 2005 supplemental request is illuminating: in a vast request
for $82 billion, only $2 billion was set aside for non-military aid to Afghanistan.
Military operations in Afghanistan, on the other hand, are estimated
at $13 billion per year.
It's sad to say that America's anemic levels of assistance are not unique among
donors, which pledged last year to provide $8.2
billion in aid over three years, a far cry from the World Bank and Afghan
government's estimate that Afghanistan
needs $27.5 billion over seven years. What is unique is the military presence
that accompanies these aid gestures. The U.S. should work to share the military
burden, and then re-invest the savings into measures critical to long-term success:
confronting the drug problem, cracking down on smuggling, and expanding government
capacity. Afghanistan remains abjectly poor and ranks among the worst-off in
nearly every development indicator, including education, women's health, life
expectancy, infant mortality, and infectious disease. Even with recent economic
and educational progress Afghanistan could still fail.
It's important not to downplay the good that America has done in Afghanistan.
U.S. dollars have contributed to the construction of over 200 schools, the immunization
against measles and polio of 4 million children, and the rehabilitation of Afghanistan's
lifelinethe critical Kabul-Kandahar highway. With U.S. support, Karzai
has gradually expanded the reach of the central government toward the lawless
periphery. But America has neither done as much as it could, nor as much as
it has promised. Afghan expectations are unrealistically high, and the situation
remains precarious: a recipe for instability.
Karzai yielded this week in accepting a continued U.S. presence without Afghan
or international oversight. But the negative repercussions of an indefinite
U.S. military presence are only likely to grow, both in Afghanistan and elsewhere.
Carl Robichaud is a program officer at The Century Foundation.
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