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April 7, 2006
This week in Afghanistan Watch:
“We are like wheat kernels being ground between the millstones of Sharia law and international human rights conventions because we have pledged to uphold both.”
—Abdul Malik Kamawi, a Supreme Court spokesman
"I believe we can do it. We could take advantage of this window of opportunity in the next three to five years. We have the resources to become at least 75-80 percent self-supporting, self-reliant."
—Noorullah Delawari, Afghanistan Central Bank Governor. Delawari returned
to Afghanistan in 2002 with 25 years of experience in commercial banking in California
"No U.S.official will say it publicly, but the conclusion is clear: We will be in Afghanistan for a very long time, much longer than we will remain in Iraq."
—Richard Holbrooke, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations
"Certainly, in this election cycle, evangelical Christians are going to ask questions unlike before about our policy there,"
—Jim Jacobson, president of Christian Freedom International,
a conservative human rights organization
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Richard Holbrooke at a Century Foundation sponsored conference in 2003. |
Afghanistan: The Long Road Ahead
KABUL, April 2 (Washington Post) By Richard Holbrooke—In a region of Pakistan almost unknown to most Americans, a sort of failed ministate offering sanctuary to our greatest enemies has arisen. It is a smaller version of what Afghanistan was before Sept. 11, 2001 , and it poses a direct threat to vital American national security interests.
Waziristan and North-West Frontier Province, where Osama bin Laden and the Taliban leader Mullah Omar are hiding, have become a major sanctuary in which the Taliban and al-Qaeda train, recruit, rest and prepare for the next attacks on U.S., NATO and Afghan forces inside Afghanistan. The most recent, on March 29, resulted in the deaths of one American and one Canadian soldier. More attacks must be expected.
For the United States, the dilemma is huge. There is no chance that the training of the Afghan army and police will produce a force able to defend itself as long as the Taliban has sanctuary in Pakistan . Other than "hot pursuit," which is already permitted, the United States cannot invade Waziristan; such an operation would have little chance of success and would create an enormous crisis in U.S. relations with Pakistan. Leave Afghanistan, and the Taliban will return, along with bin Laden and al-Qaeda. The only viable choice is to stay, in order to deny most of the country to the enemy. That means an indefinite U.S. and NATO military presence in Afghanistan . No U.S. official will say it publicly, but the conclusion is clear: We will be in Afghanistan for a very long time, much longer than we will remain in Iraq…
Denying the country to our enemies is not a long-term strategy, but it is essential in the current phase of history. |
Afghanistan will be difficult, and we must do a much better job on the ground. There is always a risk that our presence will, over time, create an Iraq-like anti-American xenophobia (in a country with a famously xenophobic history). But Afghanistan is not Iraq . Denying the country to our enemies is not a long-term strategy, but it is essential in the current phase of history, especially as Iraq stumbles toward an increasingly bleak future.
Richard Holbrooke, a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, writes a monthly column for the Post.
Head of Central Bank on prospects for economic recovery
KABUL, April 1 (Reuters) By Phil Smith—Natural resources, agri-business and power generation are the bricks with which to rebuild Afghanistan's broken economy but security risks in the country are a major obstacle to investment outside of aid plans, Central Bank Governor Noorullah Delawari said on Saturday…
"The fact is we are a recipient of a very large amount of foreign aid, it brings a lot of foreign exchange, that's our current account, that's our revenue," Delawari said noting that Afghanistan's exports stand at about $500 million while imports are officially close to $3 billion. He thinks the figure probably exceeds $4 billion.
"In the short-term we need to improve our exports...agri-business and hand-made products will create a lot of jobs and fairly good income for the country," he said.
"Second, I believe Afghanistan could be a major player in exploring and exploiting our natural resources. We have potential to develop 25,000 MW of electricity...We may use 10,000 MW, the rest could be exported to energy-hungry countries like Pakistan and India ."
You have to create production opportunities. That's equally important to building roads and bridges.
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While Afghanistan 's infrastructure needs significant attention, Delawari does not see it as a mission in itself. "Infrastructure is a subjective matter. Building roads, bridges and telecommunications and so on, those are fine ... but I want to spend more serious time on practical aspects of our growth, to remove obstacles, improve efficiency, to produce, to create jobs, move towards a more self-sustained economy."…
Gross domestic product (GDP) in Afghanistan has averaged 17 percent over the past four years, Delawari said. The IMF is forecasting 11.7 percent growth this year.
"I'm convinced we could be a big player in the region. We have quite a bit of natural gas…We have iron ore and copper," he said, adding that transport links were being developed from ports in Iran and Pakistan to Central Asia…"If we didn't have this security concern I could see really good investment opportunities, and investment coming."
Evangelicals Reconsider Bush's Drive In Mideast
WASHINGTON March 31 (Forward) By Ori Nir—With support for President Bush already at record lows, some Christian conservative leaders say that they are reconsidering their support for the administration's push to democratize the Muslim world.
Religious conservatives spent the past few weeks urging the White House to stop an Afghan court from executing Abdul Rahman, a convert to Christianity who is accused of violating Islamic law. After complaints from American officials, the case was dismissed. But the controversy left the Christian Right questioning the Bush administration's assumption that Muslim countries can become democratic even while adhering to Islamic law and Muslim customs.
"This has been a huge wake-up up call for a lot of people in the evangelical Christian population," said Jim Jacobson, president of conservative human rights organization Christian Freedom International. "The administration has been saying all along that democracy is the answer to all the problems. What people have seen in this case, however, is that democracy isn't the only answer and it does not resolve problems of religious discrimination and problems of the heart."
"This has been a huge wake-up up call for a lot of people in the evangelical Christian population"
—Jim Jacobson
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The relationship between democracy and religious rights in the Muslim world may become an election issue in coming months, according to Jacobson and other religious conservative activists.
"Certainly, in this election cycle, evangelical Christians are going to ask questions unlike before about our policy there," Jacobson said. "People who've been very, very supportive of the president's policies are asking questions like never before, and this should be a wake-up call for everyone."
The anger within the GOP base comes at a time when Bush is increasingly dependent on Christian conservative support for the Iraq War and for the administration's hawkish positions.
"That's why erosion in support among that camp is very significant," said Timothy Shah, a senior fellow in religion and world affairs at the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life.
Support for the war has consistently been 20 percentage-points higher among evangelical Christians than among the general population, Shah said. At the same time, he added, evangelicals are twice as likely as other Americans (40% to 20%) to view the protection of religious freedom worldwide as a top American foreign policy goal…
“Religious freedom is not just ‘an important element’ of democracy; it is its cornerstone."
—Tony Perkins |
"So far, [Christian conservative] opposition was theoretical," Shah said. "With the Abdul Rahman case, the other shoe dropped: There was a concrete case that illustrated the contradiction between a modern constitution and Islamic law."…
"Americans have spent blood and treasure to help build democracy in Afghanistan and in Iraq and to combat terrorism, yet we find that people who are not Muslims can be killed [there] just for their religious belief. That's shocking," said Bill Saunders, human rights counsel at a leading conservative organization, the Family Research Council. "It is a failure that [members of the Bush administration] have to rectify," he said. Saunders added that if Muslim countries "don't democratize in a way that protects religious freedom, it's almost not worth doing."…
The sense that Bush's idea of democracy differs from that of many of his conservative supporters has been on display since the case of the Afghan convert started making headlines last week. "Democracy is more than purple thumbs," said Family Research Council President Tony Perkins in an outraged statement, alluding to recent elections in Iraq and in Afghanistan . He added: "Americans will not give their blood and treasure to prop up new Islamic fundamentalist regimes. Religious freedom is not just 'an important element' of democracy; it is its cornerstone."…
More:
Christian Freedom International Statement on Abdul Rahman, March 30, 2006
Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life: July 2005 Survey
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Video still from a 55 minute Al Qaeda training video released by the Taliban in late July 2004.
Source: www.intelcenter.com |
DVDs and the Afghan insurgency
KHOST, Feb 23 (BBC) By Mark Dummett and Bilal Sarwary—It is only 200km (125 miles) from Kabul to Khost, but Afghanistan 's capital has little control over this rugged border province. Government officials in Kabul say well-armed fighters cross regularly from next-door Pakistan, but admit they can do little to stop them.
In remote areas, more than $5,000 in bounty money has been offered to local men to kill senior government workers, one administrator said. "It is big money. It is al-Qaeda money and it is from the Gulf," he said, referring to Arab supporters of al-Qaeda.
Khost's beleaguered local government blames Pakistan for this situation. It says militants have been allowed to set up training camps near the town of Miranshah , in the tribal areas across the border.
Some of these camps have been filmed and the DVDs that are then distributed in both countries. The films are used to terrorize opponents and recruit new fighters, or sent abroad to help raise money. Their commentaries are often in Arabic, over a soundtrack of religious singing.
Their producers appear keen to make an explicit link between the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq…
Four Lessons from Afghanistan’s Apostasy Trial
By Carl Robichaud
“Clerics Call for Christian Convert's Death…. Kabul Judge Rejects Calls to End Trial…. U.S. Christians outraged over Afghan case.”
These unwelcome headlines last week covered dispatches not from Taliban-ruled territory but from U.S.-liberated Afghanistan, a country that President Bush last month called a “key partner” and “an inspiration” that will lead other nations “to demand their freedom.”
Abdul Rahman last week faced the death penalty for converting to Christianity and was only released for reasons of “mental health” (he has since taken asylum in Italy.) His escape from Islamic “justice” triggered outrage among conservative Afghans.
The case broadcast to the world that while Afghanistan may have held two elections, it remains a long way from joining the ranks of liberal democracies. It suggests four trends in Afghanistan’s reconstruction. More... |
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Afghanistan Watch is prepared by Carl Robichaud, a program officer at The Century Foundation.
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