November 15, 2005

This Week in Afghanistan Watch:

• Iraq to Afghanistan : Afghan Jihadists Adopt Iraq Tactics
• Two Suicide Attacks Hit NATO Vehicles in Kabul
• U.S. Bill Would Spend $20.9 Billion On Foreign Aid
• Afghanistan Joins Central Asian Economic Cooperation Program
• Afghanistan Not Aware of Reported Secret CIA Jails
• Featured Article: Delays Hurting U.S. Rebuilding in Afghanistan

"Everyone knows who I am. . .If we didn't have support from local people, we couldn't operate in this area for a single day."

—Mohammed Daud, a Taliban commander who
trained in Iraq and currently operates in Ghazni

"If you play just the numbers game, we're going to look bad, no doubt about it. . .But if you look at this as a development issue, then you have an understanding of what we're trying to do."

—Thomas Nicastro, a Louis Berger vice president

"Regarding the presence of secret prisons in Afghanistan , we have no information."

—President Karzai spokesman Karim Rahimi

"This mentality that it's very risky is not the reality."

—Virginia Sheffield, Sheffield Advisors, on doing business in Afghanistan

Afghanistan By the Numbers:

• Budget Managed per USAID Staff Member, Afghanistan : $11.2 million (USD)
• Budget Managed per USAID Staff Member, Worldwide average: $1.3 million
• Cost, according to Finance Minister, of each BearingPoint advisor: $500,000 (includes $150,000 salary, expenses, security, overhead and profit)
• Number of such advisors, 2004: 50
• Number of such advisors, 2005: 27
• Cost per mile of Kabul to Kandahar road, directed by Louis Berger: $1 million
• Percentage over anticipated cost, according to the GAO: 100

Source: "Delays Hurting U.S. Rebuilding in Afghanistan", New York Times, November 7, 2005.

Iraq to Afghanistan
By Carl Robichaud

November 13

Strategists who once worried that jihadists trained in Afghanistan's camps would infiltrate Iraq are today concerned that a new wave of jihadists, battle hardened in Iraq, is filtering into Afghanistan.

Last month, Newsweek reported that two Taliban regional leaders, Mohammed Daud and Hamza Sangari, traveled to Iraq and received training there from insurgents. "I'm explaining to my fighters every day the lessons I learned and my experience in Iraq," Daud told reporters. "I want to copy in Afghanistan the tactics and spirit of the glorious Iraqi resistance."

The report confirms a trend that many suspected: elements of Afghanistan's insurgency are drawing their lessons—directly and indirectly—from Iraq. In the past six months, Afghanistan has seen combat of increased scope and brutality, with more fighting now than at any point since the Taliban regime fell. The daily attacks against coalition troops and Afghan security forces by Taliban insurgents have recently been accompanied by a wave of suicide tactics-once rare in Afghanistan—which authorities attribute to foreign jihadists.

An Afghan child gazing to US forces opposite to PRTs centre in Gardez. Source:© IRIN

Already there have been 13 suicide attacks this year, more than double the number from last year. As in Iraq, bombers have increasingly targeted civilians, sometimes with devastating effect, such as the June suicide bombing at a Kandahar mosque that killed 19 and wounded 52. Milton Bearden, a former CIA agent specializing in Afghanistan during the Cold War, believes that recent attacks have "the fingerprints" of the Iraq insurgency.

Should we be worried about a dozen suicide bombings a year in Afghanistan when there are sometimes a dozen a week in Iraq? While the differences between the insurgencies are vast, the presence of foreign extremists in each is alarming. Unlike local resistance, for which a political settlement may be possible (as Afghanistan 's government is attempting with the Taliban), foreign jihadists make insatiable demands. They deliberately aim for civilians and soft targets, allowing even a small jihadist presence to cause great devastation. Lest we forget, there were only a few scattered suicide bombings in Iraq until five months into the occupation—when foreign jihadists leveled the United Nations headquarters.

Moreover, the indigenous Taliban have adopted tactics from these foreign jihadists and from Iraqi insurgents. This year has seen a rise in high-profile kidnappings and attacks on civilians (25 aid workers have already been killed this year). The Taliban have also increased their use of roadside bombs, and have started using armor-penetrating "shaped charges," a technology pioneered in Iraq. And last week an official from Afghanistan 's interior ministry claimed that the Taliban had purchased surface-to-air missiles in Iraq.

Afghanistan may be the first battlefield where insurgents have employed tactics and techniques honed in Iraq, but it won't be the last. Iraq has updated the doctrines that Afghan jihadists used to defeat the Soviet Union, along with tactics derived from conflicts in Lebanon and Palestine. The war has broadcast to a new generation how surprise and targeted brutality can stalemate a technologically and numerically superior force. The intervention in Iraq, perceived as illegitimate throughout much of the world, has united a diverse set of enemies against America.

The CIA's National Intelligence Council released a report in January which concluded that Iraq has deepened jihadist solidarity and that "The al-Qa'ida membership that was distinguished by having trained in Afghanistan will gradually dissipate, to be replaced in part by the dispersion of the experienced survivors of the conflict in Iraq." According to Bearden, today "Fallujah plays the role that Afghanistan played for Abdullah Azzam [mentor of Osama bin Laden]—not so much to create an Islamic state but to raise a legion of internationalist Islamists, a generation devoted to global jihad." Iraq 's foreign jihadists, hailing from twenty-seven different countries, have now been tempered in the same forge.

We're seeing the results now in Afghanistan and Jordan, and could soon see them in Egypt, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, and Somalia, the countries from which most of the Iraqi foreign fighters hail. The idea that leaving Iraq will allow terrorists to establish bases is misleading—that is precisely what they have there now.

Read also: Afghanistan’s Militant Insurgency Experiencing “Iraqization”, Eurasianet Insight, by Claudio Franco.

Two Suicide Attacks Hit NATO Vehicles in Kabul
KABUL, Nov 14 (AP)—Two separate suicide attackers rammed car bombs into vehicles belonging to NATO-led peacekeepers Monday in Kabul , killing at least one German soldier and wounding at least 13 people in the first major attack on foreign troops in the capital in more than a year…The last major attack on the peacekeepers in the capital was in October 2004, when a militant detonated grenades strapped to his body on a shopping street, wounding three Icelandic security personnel and killing an American translator and an Afghan girl…Militants have conducted eight suicide bombings nationwide in the past two months. Prior to that, such assaults were far less frequent.

U.S. Bill Would Spend $20.9 Billion On Foreign Aid
WASHINGTON, Nov 2 (Reuters) By Vicki Allen—U.S. Senate and House of Representatives negotiators on Tuesday agreed to a $20.9 billion foreign aid bill, with less than President George W. Bush wanted for reform-minded nations, and nearly $3 billion to fight AIDS…The bill more than doubles aid to Afghanistan to $430 million, but withholds half of that until the State Department certifies that it is fully cooperating with U.S.-funded narcotics eradication and interdiction efforts. International narcotics control would get $477 million, up $151 million from current levels, and the Andean counter-drug initiative would get $735 million, up $9 million…

Afghanistan Sets Up Counternarcotics Trust Fund
KABUL, Oct 29 (Reuters) By Sayed Salahuddin—Afghanistan…has set up a trust fund to manage the money it expects to receive in foreign aid for its war against illegal drugs…Donors, foreign as well as Afghans, say they have spent $400 million so far this year on anti-drugs projects and in persuading local farmers to swap lucrative poppies for other crops. Afghanistan is looking for more money to help persuade farmers give up opium growing and to rebuild irrigation systems and roads destroyed by decades of war in the country…The government fund would be managed by the United Nations Development Programme, he said, adding that the European Union had pledged 15 million euros ($18 million) to the fund.

Heroin labs destroyed in east
Nov 5 (Anis; translation from Institute for War and Peace Reporting)—The Afghan interior ministry says its counter-narcotics forces have destroyed 30 heroin-producing labs and around 4,000 kilograms of raw opium in the Achin district of the eastern province of Nangarhar over the past four days. A ministry source said the operation was conducted in the villagers of Shagar and Abdul Khil by forces backed by helicopters.

Central Asian Nations Meet in Afghanistan to Revive Trade
Kabul, Nov 10 (AFP)—Ten Islamic, mostly Central Asian nations met in Afghanistan to push their aim of slashing tariffs and freeing up trade in the region once spanned by the Silk Road. Afghanistan, after decades of war and occupation, told the Economic Cooperation Organisation (ECO) it hoped to become a "land bridge," revitalizing the ancient trade route that linked Europe and the Far East.

The ECO groups Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, which together make up six percent of the world population, according to the organization…Afghanistan has the lowest tariffs among the 10 countries—on average just over four percent—compared to Pakistan 's tariffs of up to 120 percent...

Central Asia 's proximity to rapidly growing markets such as China and India made clear the rationale for cooperation, said Asian Development Bank Afghanistan head Brian Fawcett. The transit of goods through the region was still hampered, with truckers and traders facing daily road closures and border restrictions, he said.

This week has been a good one for trade in Afghanistan: the country was also admitted to SAARC, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation which includes seven other nations (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.)

Time to Open the Kabul Branch?
KABUL, Nov 8 (NYT) by Michael T. Luongo—On the first day of her first business trip to Kabul in January 2003, Virginia Sheffield found her car surrounded by "three very excited Afghans with guns." It was the sort of incident that plays to foreign fears of Afghanistan as a lawless, violent place that is best avoided by Western capitalists.

But contrary to that popular perception, Sheffield and other corporate executives say, Afghanistan is the place to be these days. Its economy is booming, opening up opportunities for foreign businesses small and large, they say, and the risk that looms so large in the American imagination of falling prey to thugs or terrorists is not only exaggerated, it is diminishing.

"This mentality that it's very risky is not the reality," Sheffield said…In fact, it is more the chaos of everyday life—the pell-mell pace of construction everywhere, the erratic traffic, the worsening pollution, the unreliability of the work force—that bothers many foreign business people more than the perceived security threats do…

Afghanistan Government: Not Aware of Reported Secret CIA Jails
KABUL, Nov 8 (AFP)—Afghanistan said it is not aware of any secret CIA prisons within its borders but that it will investigate after a newspaper reported the country had one of several such facilities around the world. The Washington Post reported earlier this month that the CIA was holding top Al-Qaeda suspects in secret detention centres known as "black sites" in eight countries, including Afghanistan.

"Regarding the presence of secret prisons in Afghanistan , we have no information," presidential spokesman Karim Rahimi told a media briefing. "That is why we say there is no such secret prison in Afghanistan . Since it has been reported in the media, we will try to investigate and follow this issue and see what can we get, but now we have no information."…The US daily said the Central Intelligence Agency had sent more than 100 suspects into its hidden internment network. The number was a rough estimate and did not include prisoners picked up from Iraq , it said…

Featured Article

Delays Hurting U.S. Rebuilding in Afghanistan

Asphalt layer followed by contractor on the Kabul-Kandahar Road. Source: USAID

This excellent piece documents how security and logistical problems—along with contractor inefficiency and inadequate oversight by an overtaxed USAID—has led to long delays and high costs in Afghanistan’s reconstruction. Putting systems in place to increase efficiency and accountability is a critical challenge for the international community as it designs a successor to the Bonn Accord.

TURMAI, Afghanistan, Nov 2 (NYT) by David Rohde and Carlotta Gall—Islamuddin Ahmadiyar, a 22-year-old student, remembers the excitement in this dusty farming hamlet in central Afghanistan when American contractors broke ground two years ago…But the clinic remains an unfinished shell, one of 96 American-financed clinics and schools that a New Jersey-based company was supposed to build by September 2004. To date, nine clinics and two schools have been completed and passed inspection, according to the company…

"If you play just the numbers game, we're going to look bad, no doubt about it," said Thomas Nicastro, a Louis Berger vice president. "But if you look at this as a development issue, then you have an understanding of what we're trying to do."…Government ministers here say that the foreign consultants and contractors the Americans pay for are producing shoddy work and achieving little—though charging dearly. "Assistance is coming to Afghanistan, but we don't know how it is spent, where it is spent," said Amin Farhang, the Afghan minister of economy, who oversees foreign assistance programs.

And a July report by the Government Accountability Office, the investigative arm of Congress, sharply criticized the American reconstruction effort and the department leading it, the United States Agency for International Development. It said inconsistent financing, severe staff shortages and a lack of oversight slowed the efforts. "We really need to reform the external assistance in this country," said Jean Mazurelle, the World Bank manager in Afghanistan . "We are not in the position to provide the result on the ground that the people of this country are expecting."…

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Afghanistan Watch is prepared by Carl Robichaud, a program officer at The Century Foundation.

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